Rapid Transmission of a Hyper-Virulent Meningococcal Clone Due to High Effective Contact Numbers and Super Spreaders

Holmes, Jonathan C. and Green, Luke R. and Oldfield, Neil J. and Turner, David P.J. and Bayliss, Christopher D. (2020) Rapid Transmission of a Hyper-Virulent Meningococcal Clone Due to High Effective Contact Numbers and Super Spreaders. Frontiers in Genetics, 11. ISSN 1664-8021

[thumbnail of pubmed-zip/versions/2/package-entries/fgene-11-579411-r1/fgene-11-579411.pdf] Text
pubmed-zip/versions/2/package-entries/fgene-11-579411-r1/fgene-11-579411.pdf - Published Version

Download (1MB)

Abstract

Rapid transmission, a critical contributory factor in outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease, requires naïve populations of sufficient size and intermingling. We examined genomic variability and transmission dynamics in a student population subject to an 11-fold increase in carriage of a hypervirulent Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W ST-11 clone. Phylogenetic clusters, mutation and recombination rates were derived by bioinformatic analyses of whole-genome sequencing data. Transmission dynamics were determined by combining observed carriage rates, cluster sizes and distributions with simple SIS models. Between 9 and 15 genetically-distinct clusters were detected and associated with seven residential halls. Clusters had low mutation accumulation rates and infrequent recombination events. Modeling indicated that effective contacts decreased from 10 to 2 per day between the start and mid-point of the university term. Transmission rates fluctuated between 1 and 4% while the R(t) for carriage decreased from an initial rate of 47 to 1. Decreases in transmission values correlated with a rise in vaccine-induced immunity. Observed carriage dynamics could be mimicked by populations containing 20% of super spreaders with 2.3-fold higher effective contact rates. We conclude that spread of this hypervirulent ST-11 meningococcal clone depends on the levels of effective contacts and immunity rather than genomic variability. Additionally, we propose that super-spreaders enhance meningococcal transmission and that a 70% MenACWY immunization level is sufficient to retard, but not fully prevent, meningococcal spread in close-contact populations.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Research Asian Plos > Medical Science
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email support@research.asianplos.com
Date Deposited: 28 Jan 2023 09:52
Last Modified: 21 Oct 2024 04:22
URI: http://abstract.stmdigitallibrary.com/id/eprint/48

Actions (login required)

View Item
View Item