Statistical Study on Food Grains Demand and Supply in India

Since independence in 1947, agricultural development policies in India have aimed at reducing
hunger, food insecurity, malnourishment and poverty at a rapid rate. India, with a population of 1.11
million, accounts for 17 per cent of world’s population. Its size, in terms of consumers, is many-times
larger than the average size of rest of the countries, except China. The state of food insecurity and
hunger in India is of considerable significance for the global situation. In this present study, projected
population and food grains production is investigated by using ARIMA model and making decision for
forecast. Demand projection is also estimated by using almost ideal demand system (AIDS). The
condition of demand-supply gaps is presented under this paper. It is found that total food grains
production will be increased 281.12 Mt in the year 2020 as well as the population will be 1345 million.
The demand-supply scenarios present an alarming situation at present especially for pulses. The
demand-supply gap for pulses is going to more adverse condition which strongly affects our food and
nutritional security. Demand of pluses in 2020 will be 22.92 Mt whereas the pulses supply in that year
will be 19.68 Mt. So, it is confirmed that the demand-supply gap of pulses goes in negative. So better
technology, improved mechanism makes minimizing the demand-supply gap of pulses in India.